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"I will be sitting in this office by 2027," the Prime Minister stated, joking that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into Number 10 for a follow-up talk in the coming year.

There is never any time off for leaders. Shortly before our chat started, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was considerably lengthier than typical, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

As the new year begins, the Prime Minister seems to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just some downtime with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have left him in better spirits than at the sluggish end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they think his fortunes are poised to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the prime minister is that many of his party members think he's underperforming at his job. Some of them would rather gamble and remove him this year.

However Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "evaluated at the poll", arguing no one would take his five-year mandate from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I intend to be at the forefront," he said.

The May Elections

The issue for the PM is that he will be assessed long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to argue, perhaps excessively, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no situation under which he would step down, should one of his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove disastrous for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He sought to account for his low poll ratings by saying the voters was reasonably anxious for things to change. He sought to convince me, and the public, that 2026 would be different.

The economy would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when policies the government enacted during their first rocky year began to show results.

• He committed to close asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he wouldn't set a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a settlement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western partners were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core message is that this year the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a some time – less tense, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering demands from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with much more political clarity, more vigour, more pace and more immediacy, his points were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in considerable political trouble, should he consider a different script?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its as planned.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because government is challenging, but because he and his team have erred, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting evident political risks as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "longtime champion of international law" but we "just do not have the entire story at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is likely to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has long been bubbling pressure in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's pursuing that, but his new firmer pledge to align more closely with the EU's single market – the giant economic European market – will likely elicit howls that he is going back on his pledge never to try to overturn the decisions that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to integrate into more of the single market will delight a faction on his own side, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to