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Mounting concerns are present about the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been limited to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on recently that attempts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Border

There have been little evidence of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The leader of staff section of the defense force, the officer, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders signed a statement that the conflict was over – a move that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

However diplomatic connections have since broken down again.